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Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams

Narjes SOLTANI, Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI, Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第5期   页码 1007-1019 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0521-y

摘要： The probabilistic risk of arch dam failure under thermal loading is studied. The incorporated uncertainties, which are defined as random variables, are associated with the most affecting structural (material) properties of concrete and thermal loading conditions. Karaj arch dam is selected as case study. The dam is numerically modeled along with its foundation in three-dimensional space; the temperature and thermal stress distribution is investigated during the operating phase. The deterministic thermal finite element analysis of the dam is combined with the structural reliability methods in order to obtain thermal response predictions, and estimate the probability of failure in the risk analysis context. The tensile overstressing failure mode is considered for the reliability analysis. The thermal loading includes ambient air and reservoir temperature variations. The effect of solar radiation is considered by an increase in the ambient temperatures. Three reliability methods are employed: the first-order second-moment method, the first-order reliability method, and the Monte-Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling. The estimated failure probabilities are discussed and the sensitivity of random variables is investigated. Although most of the studies in this line of research are used only for academic purposes, the results of this investigation can be used for both academic and engineering purposes.

关键词： arch dams     probabilistic analysis     thermal stress     sensitivity     reliability    

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Probabilistic analysis of secant piles with random geometric imperfections

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第15卷 第3期   页码 682-695 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0703-2

摘要： The failure to achieve minimum design overlap between secant piles compromises the ability of a structure to perform as designed, resulting in water leakage or even ground collapse. To establish a more realistic simulation and provide guidelines for designing a safe and cost-effective secant-pile wall, a three-dimensional model of a secant pile, considering the geometric imperfections of the diameter and direction of the borehole, is introduced. An ultrasonic cross-hole test was performed during the construction of secant piles in a launching shaft in Beijing, China. Based on the test results, the statistical characteristics of the pile diameters and orientation parameters were obtained. By taking the pile diameter D, inclination angle β, and azimuth angle α as random variables, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to discuss the influence of different design parameters on the probability density functions of the overlap of secant piles. The obtained results show that the randomness of the inclination angle and pile diameter can be well described by a normal distribution, whereas the azimuth angle is more consistent with a uniform distribution. The integrity of the secant-pile wall can be overestimated without considering the uncertainty of geometric imperfections. The failure of the secant-pile wall increases substantially with increasing spatial variability in drilling inclination and diameter. A design flowchart for pile spacing under the target safety level is proposed to help engineers design a safe and economical pile wall.

关键词： secant piles     ultrasonic cross-hole testing     probabilistic analysis     reliability-based design     random imperfections    

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Seismic performance of viaducts with probabilistic method

ZHU Xi, WANG Jianmin

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2007年 第1卷 第3期   页码 267-273 doi: 10.1007/s11709-007-0034-y

摘要： Due to the uncertainty of both ground motions and structural capacity, it is necessary to consider the seismic performance of viaduct structures using the probabilistic method. The risk is quantified by a procedure on the basis of a numerical determination of the fragility curves. A group of ground motions, Large Magnitude-Short Distance Bin (LMSR-N), selected specially due to its response spectra, is accorded well with the corresponding spectra of the Chinese code for seismic design. The characteristic values of the curvature ductility factors for the serviceability and the damage control limit states are obtained, and two equations for estimating the characteristic values of the curvature ductility factors are developed through regression analysis. Then, the serviceability and damage control limit states were proposed. Three damage states were constituted according the results of the experiment by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center. The analytical fragility curves were obtained specifically, using both Capacity Spectrum Method (CSM) (non-linear static) analysis and Ineremental Dynamic Method (IDM) (non-linear dynamic) analysis, respectively, in this paper. The structural fragility curves developed by CSM method can help make the structural analysis simple and quick, avoiding the implementation of the dynamic response history analysis (RHA). Although the dynamic RHA requires a lot of complicated analysis for the structure, the results from RHA are reliable and accurate. Fragility curves are powerful tools for use in performance-based seismic bridge design.

关键词： uncertainty     Earthquake Engineering     regression analysis     accurate     fragility    

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Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by Polycyclic Aromatic

XIA Tianxiang,JIANG Lin,JIA Xiaoyang,ZHONG Maosheng,LIANG Jing

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第3期   页码 441-450 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0572-6

摘要： Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Deterministic Risk Assessment (DRA) at a coking plant site was compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient (HQ) following exposure to Naphthalene (Nap) and Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) following exposure to Benzo(a)pyrene (Bap) were 1.87 and 2.12 × 10 . PRA revealed valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and risk estimates of DRA located at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, which indicated that DRA overestimated the risk. Cleanup levels corresponding acceptable HQ level of 1 and ILCR level of 10 were also calculated for both DRA and PRA. Nap and Bap cleanup levels were 192.85 and 0.14 mg·kg by DRA, which would result in only 0.25% and 0.06% of the exposed population to have a risk higher than the acceptable risk, according to the outputs of PRA. The application of PRA on cleanup levels derivation would lift the cleanup levels 1.9 times for Nap and 2.4 times for Bap than which derived by DRA. For this coking plant site, the remediation scale and cost will be reduced in a large portion once the method of PRA is used. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating the contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it was found that contaminant concentration in the soil ( ), exposure duration ( ), total hours spent outdoor per day ( ), soil ingestion rate ( ), the air breathing rate ( ) and bodyweight ( ) were the most important parameters for risk and cleanup levels calculations.

关键词： Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)     a coking plant     risk     cleanup level     sensitivity analysis     polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)    

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An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city

Yi XU, Shunze WU, Hongkuan ZANG, Guiguang HOU

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第2期   页码 239-255 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0536-x

摘要： Currently, environmental protection and resources conservation continue to be challenges faced by solid-waste managers in China. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic development and population growth associated with increased waste generation rates and decreased waste disposal capacities. In response to these challenges, an interval joint-probabilistic mixed-integer programming (IJMP) method is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the city of Tianjin, which is one of the largest municipalities in the northern part of China. In the IJMP, joint probabilistic constraints are introduced into an interval-parameter mixed-integer programming framework, such that uncertainties presented in terms of interval values and random variables can be reflected. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the waste-management-capacity constraints are examined, which can facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective and system-failure risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the city’s existing waste-management practices and the long-term planning of the city’s waste-management facilities.

关键词： interval analysis     mixed integer     joint probabilistic constraint     planning     uncertainty     waste management    

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Proposal of a probabilistic assessment of structural collapse concomitantly subject to earthquake and

Gholamreza ABDOLLAHZADEH, Hadi FAGHIHMALEKI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2018年 第12卷 第3期   页码 425-437 doi: 10.1007/s11709-017-0427-5

摘要：

In recent decades, many public buildings, located in seismic-prone residential areas, had to grapple with abnormal loads against which the structures were unguarded. In this piece of research, an ordinary three dimensional reinforced concrete building is selected as case study. The building is located in an earthquake-prone region; however, it is designed according to seismic building codes. Yet, it is not shielded against abnormal loads, such as blasts. It is assumed that the building suffers a blast load, due to mechanical/thermal installation failure during or after intense seismic oscillations. These two critical incidents are regarded codependent and compatible. So the researchers developed scenarios and tried to assess different probabilities for each scenario and carried out an analysis to ensure if progressive collapse had set in or not. In the first step, two analysis models were used for each scenario; a non-linear dynamic time history analysis and a blast local dynamic analysis. In the second step, having the structural destructions of the first step in view, a pushdown analysis was carried out to determine the severity of progressive collapse and assess building robustness. Finally, the annual probability of structural collapse under simultaneous earthquake and blast loads was estimated and offered.

关键词： gas blast     pushdown analysis     progressive collapse     annual probability of structural collapse     3D model of structure    

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Novel probabilistic rolling regular tetrahedron mechanism

Yonghan GUAN, Yan’an YAO, Chao LIU, Ruiming LI

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第16卷 第2期   页码 363-378 doi: 10.1007/s11465-020-0628-9

摘要： With recent relevant publications on stochastic motion robots in , , and other journals, research on such robots has gained increasing attention. However, theoretical and applied research on stochastic motion in the field of robotics and mechanisms face many challenges due to the uncertainty of stochastic motion. Currently, a large gap remains in the research of stochastic motion mechanism. In this study, a novel mechanism that can conduct probabilistic rolling is proposed to reach a designated position and achieve overlying movement over a particular area. The mechanism consists of a regular tetrahedron frame, a central node, and four connecting linear actuators. According to mobility and kinematic analyses, the mechanism can implement probabilistic rolling. Each rolling gait has three probable rolling directions, and the mechanism rolls in one of the three directions in probability. A kinematic simulation is conducted, and a control method is proposed on the basis of the moving path analysis. Furthermore, the mathematical principle of probabilistic rolling is revealed in terms of probability theory and statistics. Lastly, a prototype is fabricated. To achieve the rolling function, the design of the linear actuators is improved, and the extension ratio is increased from 0.58 to 1.13. Then, tests are conducted. In a 4 m test site, the mechanism makes 11 moves to reach the target position and covers 29.25% of the site.

关键词： mobile mechanism     probabilistic motion     rolling mechanism     stochastic motion    

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Probabilistic seismic response and uncertainty analysis of continuous bridges under near-fault ground

Hai-Bin MA, Wei-Dong ZHUO, Davide LAVORATO, Camillo NUTI, Gabriele FIORENTINO, Giuseppe Carlo MARANO, Rita GRECO, Bruno BRISEGHELLA

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第6期   页码 1510-1519 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0577-8

摘要： Performance-based seismic design can generate predictable structure damage result with given seismic hazard. However, there are multiple sources of uncertainties in the seismic design process that can affect desired performance predictability. This paper mainly focuses on the effects of near-fault pulse-like ground motions and the uncertainties in bridge modeling on the seismic demands of regular continuous highway bridges. By modeling a regular continuous bridge with OpenSees software, a series of nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis of the bridge at three different site conditions under near-fault pulse-like ground motions are carried out. The relationships between different Intensity Measure (IM) parameters and the Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) are discussed. After selecting the peak ground acceleration as the most correlated IM parameter and the drift ratio of the bridge column as the EDP parameter, a probabilistic seismic demand model is developed for near-fault earthquake ground motions for 3 different site conditions. On this basis, the uncertainty analysis is conducted with the key sources of uncertainty during the finite element modeling. All the results are quantified by the “swing” base on the specific distribution range of each uncertainty parameter both in near-fault and far-fault cases. All the ground motions are selected from PEER database, while the bridge case study is a typical regular highway bridge designed in accordance with the Chinese Guidelines for Seismic Design of Highway Bridges. The results show that PGA is a proper IM parameter for setting up a linear probabilistic seismic demand model; damping ratio, pier diameter and concrete strength are the main uncertainty parameters during bridge modeling, which should be considered both in near-fault and far-fault ground motion cases.

关键词： continuous bridge     probabilistic seismic demand model     Intensity Measure     near-fault     uncertainty    

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Cumulant-based correlated probabilistic load flow considering photovoltaic generation and electric vehicle

Nitesh Ganesh BHAT, B. Rajanarayan PRUSTY, Debashisha JENA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2017年 第11卷 第2期   页码 184-196 doi: 10.1007/s11708-017-0465-7

摘要： This paper applies a cumulant-based analytical method for probabilistic load flow (PLF) assessment in transmission and distribution systems. The uncertainties pertaining to photovoltaic generations and aggregate bus load powers are probabilistically modeled in the case of transmission systems. In the case of distribution systems, the uncertainties pertaining to plug-in hybrid electric vehicle and battery electric vehicle charging demands in residential community as well as charging stations are probabilistically modeled. The probability distributions of the result variables (bus voltages and branch power flows) pertaining to these inputs are accurately established. The multiple input correlation cases are incorporated. Simultaneously, the performance of the proposed method is demonstrated on a modified Ward-Hale 6-bus system and an IEEE 14-bus transmission system as well as on a modified IEEE 69-bus radial and an IEEE 33-bus mesh distribution system. The results of the proposed method are compared with that of Monte-Carlo simulation.

关键词： battery electric vehicle     extended cumulant method     photovoltaic generation     plug-in hybrid electric vehicle     probabilistic load flow    

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control strategy using tuned liquid dampers to reduce displacement demands of base-isolated structures: a probabilistic

Parham SHOAEI, Houtan Tahmasebi OROMI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第4期   页码 890-903 doi: 10.1007/s11709-019-0524-8

摘要： This paper investigates a hybrid structural control system using tuned liquid dampers (TLDs) and lead-rubber bearing (LRB) systems for mitigating earthquake-induced vibrations. Furthermore, a new approach for taking into account the uncertainties associated with the steel shear buildings is proposed. In the proposed approach, the probabilistic distributions of the stiffness and yield properties of stories of a set of reference steel moment frame structures are derived through Monte-Carlo sampling. The approach is applied to steel shear buildings isolated with LRB systems. The base isolation systems are designed for different target base displacements by minimizing a relative performance index using Genetic Algorithm. Thereafter, the base-isolated structures are equipped with TLDs and a combination of the base and TLD properties is sought by which the maximum reduction occurs in the base displacement without compromising the performance of the system. In addition, the effects of TLD properties on the performance of the system are studied through a parametric study. Based on the analyses results, the base displacement can be reduced 23% by average, however, the maximum reduction can go beyond 30%.

关键词： tuned liquid damper     lead-rubber bearing system     probabilistic framework     steel shear building     relative performance index     Monte-Carlo sampling    

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一种不可否认协议额外增益的公平性分析 Research Articles

郭煦

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2022年 第23卷 第6期   页码 893-908 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.2100413

摘要：

由于区块链技术的发展，许多传统应用程序得以改进。其中一项服务是不可否认性，在这种服务中，通信过程中的参与者不能否认他们的参与。由于不可否认协议的脆弱性，通信中的一方当事人往往可以规避不可否认规则，获取预期信息，从而损害另一方当事人利益，造成不良影响。本文利用概率模型检测技术对该协议的公平性保证进行定量研究。利用概率时间自动机对协议建模，并验证概率计算树逻辑中指定的属性，来衡量协议的公平性。此外，提出为协议相关参数选择合适值的建议，以获取一定程度的公平，从而回答了另一个问题：对于一定程度的公平性度量ε，如何指定协议参数以确保公平性？

关键词： 不可否认协议；公平性分析；概率模型检测；PRISM    

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Beyond bag of latent topics: spatial pyramid matching for scene category recognition

Fu-xiang LU,Jun HUANG

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2015年 第16卷 第10期   页码 817-828 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.1500070

摘要： We propose a heterogeneous, mid-level feature based method for recognizing natural scene categories. The proposed feature introduces spatial information among the latent topics by means of spatial pyramid, while the latent topics are obtained by using probabilistic latent semantic analysis (pLSA) based on the bag-of-words representation. The proposed feature always performs better than standard pLSA because the performance of pLSA is adversely affected in many cases due to the loss of spatial information. By combining various interest point detectors and local region descriptors used in the bag-of-words model, the proposed feature can make further improvement for diverse scene category recognition tasks. We also propose a two-stage framework for multi-class classification. In the first stage, for each of possible detector/descriptor pairs, adaptive boosting classifiers are employed to select the most discriminative topics and further compute posterior probabilities of an unknown image from those selected topics. The second stage uses the prod-max rule to combine information coming from multiple sources and assigns the unknown image to the scene category with the highest ‘final’ posterior probability. Experimental results on three benchmark scene datasets show that the proposed method exceeds most state-of-the-art methods.

关键词： Scene category recognition     Probabilistic latent semantic analysis     Bag-of-words     Adaptive boosting    

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Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations

Wengang ZHANG, Libin TANG, Hongrui LI, Lin WANG, Longfei CHENG, Tingqiang ZHOU, Xiang CHEN

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第14卷 第5期   页码 1247-1261 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0655-y

摘要： Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.

关键词： reliability analysis     Bazimen landslide     rainfall     reservoir water level     slope stability    

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topology optimization of hinge-free compliant mechanisms with material uncertainties based on a non-probabilistic

Junjie ZHAN, Yangjun LUO

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年 第14卷 第2期   页码 201-212 doi: 10.1007/s11465-019-0529-y

摘要： This paper presents a new robust topology optimization framework for hinge-free compliant mechanisms with spatially varying material uncertainties, which are described using a non-probabilistic bounded field model. Bounded field uncertainties are efficiently represented by a reduced set of uncertain-but-bounded coefficients on the basis of the series expansion method. Robust topology optimization of compliant mechanisms is then defined to minimize the variation in output displacement under constraints of the mean displacement and predefined material volume. The nest optimization problem is solved using a gradient-based optimization algorithm. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for circumventing hinges in topology optimization of compliant mechanisms.

关键词： compliant mechanisms     robust topology optimization     hinges     uncertainty     bounded field    

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Probabilistic model for vessel-bridge collisions in the Three Gorges Reservoir

Bo GENG , Hong WANG , Junjie WANG ,

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年 第3卷 第3期   页码 279-285 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0044-z

摘要： Based on a field observation on vessel transit path of three bridges over the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges Reservoir, and an analysis of the geometric probabilistic model of transiting vessels in collision probability calculation, the aberrancy angle and vessel velocity probabilistic model related with impact force, a probabilistic model is established and also verified by goodness-of-fit test. The vessel transit path distribution can be expressed by the normal distribution model. For the Three Gorges Reservoir, the mean and standard deviation adopt 0.2 and 0.1, respectively ( is the channel width). The aberrancy angle distribution of vessels accepts maximum I distribution model, and its distribution parameters can be taken as 0.314 and 4.354. The velocity distribution of up-bound and down-bound vessels can also be expressed by the normal distribution model.

关键词： vessel-bridge collision     probabilistic model     parameter statistics    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Risk-based probabilistic thermal-stress analysis of concrete arch dams

Narjes SOLTANI, Mohammad ALEMBAGHERI, Mohammad Houshmand KHANEGHAHI

期刊论文

Probabilistic analysis of secant piles with random geometric imperfections

期刊论文

Seismic performance of viaducts with probabilistic method

ZHU Xi, WANG Jianmin

期刊论文

Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by Polycyclic Aromatic

XIA Tianxiang,JIANG Lin,JIA Xiaoyang,ZHONG Maosheng,LIANG Jing

期刊论文

An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city

Yi XU, Shunze WU, Hongkuan ZANG, Guiguang HOU

期刊论文

Proposal of a probabilistic assessment of structural collapse concomitantly subject to earthquake and

Gholamreza ABDOLLAHZADEH, Hadi FAGHIHMALEKI

期刊论文

Novel probabilistic rolling regular tetrahedron mechanism

Yonghan GUAN, Yan’an YAO, Chao LIU, Ruiming LI

期刊论文

Probabilistic seismic response and uncertainty analysis of continuous bridges under near-fault ground

Hai-Bin MA, Wei-Dong ZHUO, Davide LAVORATO, Camillo NUTI, Gabriele FIORENTINO, Giuseppe Carlo MARANO, Rita GRECO, Bruno BRISEGHELLA

期刊论文

Cumulant-based correlated probabilistic load flow considering photovoltaic generation and electric vehicle

Nitesh Ganesh BHAT, B. Rajanarayan PRUSTY, Debashisha JENA

期刊论文

control strategy using tuned liquid dampers to reduce displacement demands of base-isolated structures: a probabilistic

Parham SHOAEI, Houtan Tahmasebi OROMI

期刊论文

一种不可否认协议额外增益的公平性分析

郭煦

期刊论文

Beyond bag of latent topics: spatial pyramid matching for scene category recognition

Fu-xiang LU,Jun HUANG

期刊论文

Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations

Wengang ZHANG, Libin TANG, Hongrui LI, Lin WANG, Longfei CHENG, Tingqiang ZHOU, Xiang CHEN

期刊论文

topology optimization of hinge-free compliant mechanisms with material uncertainties based on a non-probabilistic

Junjie ZHAN, Yangjun LUO

期刊论文

Probabilistic model for vessel-bridge collisions in the Three Gorges Reservoir

Bo GENG , Hong WANG , Junjie WANG ,

期刊论文